Costello sent me his first installment of DOTF this season. Its self explanatory, but you should pay attention considering his other pieces read like horoscopes if look at them now. Anyway, here you go...It appears that Theo’s goal of supplementing the big budget free agents the Red Sox are able to sign with homegrown, cost-controlled talent is coming to fruition.
With All-Star pitcher Jonathan Papelbon moving into the 3
rd starter role this season, Jon Lester waiting in the wings in AAA as the “6
th starter”, Manny Delcarmen and Craig Hansen looking for breakout seasons in the bullpen, and Kevin Youkilis / Dustin Pedroia making up two-fifths of the Red Sox infield this season, the kids are starting to filter in.
However, these names might just be the tip of the iceberg.
In this year’s first edition of Down on the Farm, let’s take a look at Soxprospects.com Top 10 prospects heading into this season.
1) Jacoby Ellsbury-CF Expected Level: AA
Jacoby is a going to be a bona-fide MLB centerfielder. Ellsbury runs very well, has line drive power, and flashes a great glove. He moved from Wilmington to Portland last season, and hit .300 at each level. Ellsbury has a knack for getting on base and causing havoc. Could benefit from not being rushed up due to a crowded OF situation the Sox have, with super talents like Manny, JD Drew, Coco Crisp, and Wily Mo Pena all locked up through at least 2008. If Ellsbury progresses into AAA by the end of the minor league season, he could certainly make Coco Crisp expendable, or be traded himself next off-season.
Matt’s Grade: B+
2) Clay Bucholz Expected Level: AA
The 22-year old right hander had a breakout season in 2006. Clay simply dominated A ball last season, starting in Greenville, throwing 103 innings, striking out 126 while walking only 26, sporting an ERA of 2.62. This earned him a late promotion along with fellow prospect Michael Bowden to high-A Wilmington late in the season where he proceeded to throw 16 innings, striking out 23 while walking only 4, posting an ERA of 1.13. Clay was drafted in 2005, and has since rapidly progressed through the system. Most of the season he sits at at 93-94 with his 4-seamer, however late in the season he topped out in the high 90s. His secondary pitches are well-developed for his age and experience, sporting a slider, changeup, curveball, and a sinker. Expected to begin the season in Portland or Lancaster (the new Sox high-A team), Bucholz is certainly a potential front of the rotation starter by mid-2008.
Matt’s Grade: A-
3) Michael Bowden Expected Level: High-A/AA
The other half of my “dynamic duo” of starting pitching prospects in the minors right now, Bowden may actually have a higher ceiling than Clay, but will likely take a little longer to reach it. Think Jon Lester to JP. Bowden is a 20-year old two years removed from High School who has already advanced to high A Ball. Throws a low-90s moving fastball which tops in the mid 90s, and will probably gain velocity as he adds bulk to his frame, and also sports a hard 12-6 curve, a slider, and a circle-changeup. Like Bucholz, he began 2006 in Greenville, and threw 107 innings, striking out 118 and walking 31. He was promoted for one start only to Wilmington late in the season, and did not have a great outing. He pitched 5 innings, allowed 9 hits and 5 runs all earned. This has been the only bump in the road in an otherwise stellar minor league career thus far. Like Bucholz, the Red Sox are not going to rush Bowden. He will probably pitch a bulk of his season in Wilmington then finish off in AA if and when Bucholz is promoted to Pawtucket towards the end of the season. Could be a great number 2 to Bucholz number 1 down the line, or great trade bait next off-season.
Matt’s Grade- B+
4) Dustin Pedroia - Starting 2B
Much of you know who Pedroia is by now, and those who do are not worried at all about Theo and Tito turning over the 2B duties to the 23-yr old out of Arizona State. A former “Golden Spikes” award winner at SS for defensive player of the year in college, Pedroia has hit .300 at every level of the minors. Reportedly slimmed down this off-season and added some lean muscle, which has allowed him to potentially add some major league doubles and home run power to his game. Will probably post an OPS in the mid 700s this season while turning in good D. Fenway fans will come to love this dirt-dog type at 2B this season, and hopefully for many seasons to come. Is ranked a little lower since 2B ceilings are typically lower then other positions, but Pedrioa is the kind of prospect who can hop right in and be a winner. Teammates at all levels of the minors rave about this kid.
Matt’s Grade: B+
5) Bryce Cox Expected Level: High A/AA
Cox is a closer of the future candidate who will begin his season pitching in Lancaster for the Sox high-A affiliate. Cox was drafted out of Rice University where he had an interesting senior season. Half-way through the year, he came down with a case of the yips, and he lost complete command of the strike-zone. Bryce took a couple of weeks off, and came back with a new delivery. Cox absolutely dominated the College World Series, not allowing an ER in 15 innings pitched. The Sox drafted him in the 3rd round. Cox is blessed with a sinking high 90s fastball and a lights-out slider. In 30 minor league innings last season, Cox struck out 32 and walked 11, while allowing only 3 earned runs. Cox has the kind of arm that can progress rapidly through the system. However, as the Sox learned with Craig Hansen, a little seasoning is probably best. For that reason alone, expect to see Cox get all his work in the minors this season and compete for a bullpen job in 2008.
Matt’s Grade: B+
6) Daniel Bard Expected Level: High A
Bard, the Sox 1st round draft choice in the 2006 draft, is an exciting starting pitching prospect. Coming out of North Carolina, the 6-4, 200lb right hander throws an “effortless” 98-100 MPH fastball with little movment but good command. His secondary pitches need some refinement, but they include a changeup in the low 80s, a sinker in the low 90s, and a slurve in high 70s. Bard has a very smooth delivery and was clocked at 98 as far as the 8th and 9th innings of most starts last year. Combined with Andrew Miller to form one of the most formidable one-two punches in the game. A toolsy pick, which is unlike Theo’s past drafts, Bard has an incredibly high ceiling but will likely not reach the parent club until 2009.
Matt’s Grade: B-
7) George Kottaras Expected Level: AA/AAA
The catcher acquired for David Wells at the end of August last season will probably slot into Pawtucket this season for the majority of his ABs. Figures to be the heir apparent to Jason Varitek. Great patience at the plate and his 15-20 HR potential at the major league level. Bats and throws left-handed, catching skills are ok, but game-calling supposedly great. Has caught knuckle-baller Steve Sparks before, and could be the Sox backup catcher in 2008, then take over the starting job in ’09.
Matt’s Grade- B
8) Justin Masterson Expected Level: High A
Masterson was the Red Sox 2nd round draft pick out of San Diego State, and he flourished as a relief pitcher in Lowell last season. He threw 31 innings, struck out 33 and walked only 2 as a RP. This season, Masterson will return to his natural role of a starting pitcher, where he flashes a Derek Lowe-type repertoire with the good sinker in the low 90s, a slider in the 80s, as well as a good straight change in the low 80s with some fade to it. Masterson will likely be a reliever at some point in the future, but this season the Sox are giving him some more innings to develop his secondary pitches. Could be a dark-horse BP candidate in 2008.
Matt’s Grade: B
9) Jason Place Expected Level: Mid-A
Place was the Red Sox other 1st round pick in the 2006 draft. A 5-tool potential outfielder, Place started last season in the GCL, where he posted a .839 OPS with 4 HR’s and 3 SB’s in 30 games. Place was drafted out of high school, and tends to strike out a bit much, but he does get on-base, slug well, and play great corner OF defense. Look for Place to have a good season and end up in Lancaster before the end of the minor league season. Definitely a few years away from the Bigs, but has a high ceiling.
Matt’s Grade: B-
10) Lars Anderson Expected Level: Mid-A
Perhaps the most intriguing and highest ceiling prospect in the system, Anderson was a 14th round draft pick by the Red Sox this past year. The highest rated HS corner infielder, there were concerns by many teams that he would not sign and instead go to college. The Red Sox were able to sign him, and the big lefty could make some noise sooner than later in the system. Lars is 6-4, 215 lbs, and clubbed 14 HR’s in a mere 70 AB’s his senior year of high school. Anderson brings what the Sox system has lacked since Theo took over, a high ceiling, power hitting, corner infielder. Lars is definitely a few years away, however I am particularly interested in watching him develop this season.
Matt’s Grade: Inc.
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home